The Fallacy of Past Performance Predicting Future Performance

photo by pasukaru76

“We only hire ‘A’ players.”

“Past performance predicts future performance.”

We use all sorts of shortcuts when hiring people.  They sound good and make us feel like we’re being very discerning.

But are we really doing a great job?

Before launching into why we need to update our thinking on past performance, let’s start by acknowledging that if someone has been successful in the past that’s a great indicator that they can be again.  By all means, a positive sign.  

But we shouldn’t exclude people who haven’t been ‘A’ players, ‘rockstars‘ or ’1-percenters.’

Here are some fallacies behind the ‘past performance’ mindset:

1.  Situational performance

2.  Team effects

3.  Opportunity

Performance is situational.  

Most of us have worked with people we couldn’t stand.  If they were our boss then it made coming in to work and doing great work incredibly difficult.  We had to shift how we thought, how we operated and how we spoke just to make sure that we sort of ‘fit in.’

All that takes energy that could be better applied to completing our projects.  And it does little to motivate us to think about our job outside of the office.  We become less engaged and while we’ll still capable of doing a good job on our projects we’re not going to shine like the person who goes the extra mile and dedicates ‘off-hours’ thinking to solving problems out of their realm.

When we aren’t ideally suited for the environment, success will be far more difficult to attain.

Imagine asking Tom Brady (the not so swift-footed quarterback for the New England Patriots) to run a new style of offense that requires him to run the option (less throwing, more running).  He may do alright but he’s not going to be the top-caliber performer he is today.  How well someone fits ‘the system’ is a leading predictor of success.

Team effects. 

Work today is highly interconnected.  Everyone of us has to rely on colleagues in order to get things accomplished.  It takes a village.  Rare is the project that gets hammered out without the contributions, feedback and improvements from others.

Which brings us back to the question of how much success should we attribute to a single person?

Using the Tom Brady analogy again, how much of his success should be attributed to his offensive line?  An extra second to throw the ball is an eternity and can turn an average quarterback into a star.  How much to his wide receivers who know how to read the defense to break off a route sooner?  To the coach who designed the system?  You get the idea…

Opportunity.

On the macro level, most people change jobs every 3.5 years which means that unless one is 20 years into their career it’s very possible a candidate hasn’t found the right situation where they can be most successful.

It’s like saying someone who has had three or four relationships in their life will never get married because they haven’t been successful in a relationship before.

On the micro level, politics often play a large role in who gets the plum assignments.  Being successful in the professional world requires we have the opportunity to do something impactful that is in our ability wheelhouse.  Capable people are often passed over for people who are more adept at playing the political game.  Are those the ones you really want to hire?

So don’t ignore past performance, but don’t put all your eggs in that basket either.  Ignoring whether someone is a strong fit to your culture is the first step to making a bad hire.  Even if all of your hires have been overwhelmingly successful in the past, if they don’t like how you operate and what your company rewards they aren’t going to want to put their best foot forward.

Do Pre-Hire Assessments Affect The Applicant Pool?

People Don't Mind Assessments

This was a question we wondered about too.  For good reason, obviously.

Turns out, despite the fears of some, administering pre-hire assessments do not significantly diminish the applicant pool.

The fears are highly justified, but the bigger story here is that candidates want to avoid landing in a bad job as much as you want to avoid a bad hire.  After reading the comments it was clear they overwhelmingly supported the idea that applicants are not just willing, but hungry for something that will also help them identify whether they will fit a company’s culture prior to joining just as much as HR professionals and hiring managers.

The results (seen above) show that only 10% of applicants claim to flat out refuse to take a pre-hire assessment. [Though when push comes to shove, I'd guess not all of them will hold that line.]

Even better for hiring managers is that over a quarter will only complete the assessment if they are truly interested in the job.  This means pre-hire cultural assessments are a quick and painless way of lopping off the portion of the applicant pool who may have the skills and even be a good fit, but they just aren’t that into you.

Moral of the story: You may experience 1 in 10 people refusing to complete the assessment, but you’ll save time not having to weed through 1 in 4 who aren’t that serious or interested in your company or the job.  Even better, by administering pre-hire assessments you can tip the odds in your favor of hiring top performers who fit your culture.

[NOTE:  Given the number of respondents these results are accurate at a 95% confidence level +/- 3.56%.]

Arranged Marriages and Hiring

On the night-stand this week is Sheena Iyengar’s recent book called The Art of Choosing. Like many books in the pop-science vein, there are plenty of studies that are interestingly counter-intuitive.

One study in particular jumped out.  Drs. Gupta and Singh of the University of Rajasthan studied the consequences of arranged marriages and marriages by choice.  The results?

Couples who had been together for less than one year and had ‘married for love’ (i.e. chosen their partners) scored a 70 of 91 on the Rubin Love Scale.  After ten years, they totaled 40 of 91.

The arranged marriages, as you can imagine, didn’t start so hot and heavy.  First year couples tallied 58 points, but that grew to 68 after ten years.

The conclusion Iyengar (and the study’s authors) draws is that, “In an arranged marriage, two people are brought together based on shared values and goals, with the assumption that they will grow to like each other over time, much in the same way that a bond develops between roommates, business partners or close friends.”

The marriage metaphor is often used to describe hiring or accepting a job in the professional ranks.  Both sides spend a little time doing a mating dance, putting their best foot forward and trying to hide their craziness and then make a decision that will – they hope – last a long time.

The process itself is a bit of a hybrid between choice and being arranged, particularly if an outside recruiter is used (though their incentives for a happy match aren’t anywhere near  as strong as two parents’).  But far too often we are making hiring decisions “for love” (i.e. we fall in love with the resume and the skills and accomplishments the candidate brings).  Ultimately, we are so overwhelmed by their stunning ‘good looks’ on paper that we overlook the fact that our values and goals are not well aligned.  As is typical the relationship starts well.  But over time, their differences are exposed which is why nearly half of all hires ‘fail’ within the first 18-months.

While everyone tries to get to the heart of a candidate’s values and personality, it ultimately devolves into a like-ability screen.  Can you imagine eating lunch or going for drinks after work with the candidate?  If so that’s great, but it makes for a good friend, not necessarily a great employee.

At RoundPegg, we encourage you to look beyond that attractive resume.  Just as the parents who select their children’s mate won’t pick someone repulsively unattractive, you’re not going to hire an idiot.  Odds are good that the person who has adequate skills but embodies the best of your culture will ultimately prove to be the far more successful partner.  Sometimes it just takes a little objectivity to see that.

How To Develop Great Cultures

RoundPegg has created the third webinar in a series on organizational fit. In this edition Dr. Natalie runs through the benefits of aligning a company culture as well as providing some solid how-tos in order to identify and align your own culture. While it’s not easy, it’s worth the energy expenditure.

Please enjoy and, as always, contact us at info@roundpegg.com if you’d like to learn more.